It's Crow. The credibility of what he says is... practically non-existant.
Okay something that's been bothering me about the whole Kian, Vamon, and Sahya thing...
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Yeah... I think that's more or less what we're all trying to figure out. The fact that Zoe's important is pretty easy to pin down. She's a (...the?) Dreamer. Kian's role is less clearly defined at this point. We just know that he is important.
I think we're supposed to be wondering these things at this point, though. Your theories are quite plausible. We also know that V&S are worried about General Hami and Mother Utana. Both of whom have connections to Kian. Both of whom are high ranking. It could, at this stage, be something as simple as wanting Kian out of the picture so he doesn't tip them off to...something... but whether it's just that they're abusing their power and breaking the rules (uh...they're sleeping together, for starters) or something else...
I think it's partly a "time will tell" thing, but I'm still trying to spin my theories for exactly how these pieces pull together.